Trailing And The First To Bet
In part 2 of this post let’s take a look at some situations where you are trailing. If trailing and the first to bet you’re already at a double disadvantage. If the stacks are relatively close, bet enough to take the lead. You still have the luxury of seeing a few hands and maybe catching up due to good fortune or bad wagers by your opponent. If your chip deficit is large or gets to be so, losing such a catch up bet could leave your crippled. In that case your best option is to go all in and either get back in the match or die trying.
Trailing And The Second To Bet
Even though you’re trailing you now have the advantage of position. The conventional approach is to take the high. Simply bet enough to take the lead based on what your opponent bets and your chip differential. If at some point the chip differential is high you should again consider going all in. As usual, this is the best option if losing a smaller wager will leave you effectively crippled.
The Correlation Bet
Another viable strategy is correlating bets with your opponent when trailing. It works best with close chip stacks and many hands to go before and EH. For instance, you have just completed hand 16 and have chip counts within 20% of each other.
EXAMPLE – Hand 17 @ 100,000 max/1,000 min
You 178,000 chips – bets 12,000
Seat 2 190,000 chips -bets 12,000 (Button)
Correlating bets for a few hands gives you the opportunity to lay back and try to gain the chip lead without risking a disproportionate amount of your chips. A win coupled with an opponents loss results in a reversed chip position with you taking the lead. If unsuccessful on hand 17 it could be repeated on hand 19 and 21 under similar favorable conditions. Be prepared to abandon correlating if the reversal goes against you.
Countering The Correlation Bet
You know the power of the correlation bet. Let’s examine an effective counter measure against an opponent with the lead who correlates with you.
EXAMPLE – Hand 26 @ 100,000 max/1,000 min
You 125,000 chips – bets 3,500 (Button)
Seat 2 128,000 chips – bets 3,500
It is a correct strategy to make a bet that is slightly larger than your deficit here. This seems rather obvious but consider the power behind it. Making this size bet gives you four ways to pass your correlation betting opponent.
1) A win vs. a loss – you take the lead at 128,500 to 124,500
2) A push vs. a loss – you take the lead at 125,000 to 124,500
3) A win vs. a push – you take the lead at 128,500 to 125,000
4) A win (double) vs. a win – you take the lead at 132,000 to 131,500
In contrast, suppose you had chosen to bet only 2,000 chips. The only way you could take the lead is with a win coupled with an opponents loss. You move up to 127,000 chips and they move down to 126,000 chips. No other outcome combination favors you. Making a bet slightly larger than your deficit increases your chances of taking the lead.
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